Skip to the end. I bolded it. :p
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000
FXUS64 KBMX 041527
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010
.DISCUSSION...
BACK WHEN I MOVED TO ALABAMA IN JANUARY OF 1990...I FREQUENTLY
HEARD PEOPLE REFER TO HOW COLD IT GOT AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME A
MONTH EARLIER. AND THE WAY IT WAS DESCRIBED TO ME WAS THAT IT
WASN`T AN ALL-OF-A-SUDDEN ARCTIC BLAST THAT CAME IN. IT WAS MORE
LIKE A GRADUAL CHILL DOWN...A FEW DEGREES A DAY...BEFORE YOU KNEW
IT IT WAS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THAT`S A LOT LIKE HOW
THINGS HAVE BEEN HERE LATELY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE INDEED COLD...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL BE GETTING EVEN COLDER.
THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS
GREENVILLE MS AND MEMPHIS. THAT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. MODELS DO DRY UP THE PRECIP AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HERE IN ALABAMA. I TOYED
WITH THE IDEA OF ADDING SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST
IT BASED ON THE DRYNESS OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS.
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...AND MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. HARD FREEZE SHOULD EASILY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...AND AS SOON AS CURRENT HARD FREEZE
WARNING EXPIRES WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TONIGHT
TO A WARNING. BUT AS THE SHAM-WOW GUY WOULD SAY..."BUT WAIT
THERE`S MORE."
AS IF DEALING WITH THE COLD WASN`T BAD ENOUGH WE STILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP ON THURSDAY...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT THE
04/0000Z MODEL RUNS PAINT A LESS CERTAIN FORECAST THAN APPARENTLY
THE PREVIOUS RUNS DID. I DID CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS I DO THINK THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF MOST SPOTS GETTING AT LEAST 0.01 OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. BUT THEN AGAIN... I DON`T FORESEE A LOT OF PLACES
GETTING ANY MORE THAN 0.10 EITHER. SO ITS NOT QUITE TIME TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT A MAJOR SNOWFALL. PLUS...THERE IS AGAIN SOME
QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AND QUITE FRANKLY...I THINK THE MAIN STORY WE NEED TO BE SELLING
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS THAT OF THE COLD (WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DEADLY) RATHER THAN THE SNOW POTENTIAL (WHICH
LOOKS MORE LIKE AN INCONVENIENCE IN COMPARISON). ALL SIGNS POINT
TO SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE OUTLYING AREAS...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE CITIES.
ONCE SOME AREAS GO BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
THEY MAY NOT CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AND IF YOU ORDER NOW (BECAUSE WE CAN`T DO THIS ALL DAY)...WE`LL
INCLUDE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK./61/